Right here at Hootsuite, we’re consultants on social media developments and conversations. And proper now, some of the prevalent conversations in each nook of the web (and at virtually each dinner desk) is the upcoming 2024 US presidential election.
Right now, we’re pulling again the curtain. With the assistance of Hootsuite Listening powered by Talkwalker, we’re taking an in depth have a look at how the 2 candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, are acting on social media — and what companies can be taught from their campaigns.
Key phrases
In social listening, sentiment is the measurement of what number of explicitly constructive or unfavorable key phrases seem alongside a selected search time period. The search phrases we used for this evaluation had been Kamala Harris, Vice President Harris, Kamala, Donald Trump, President Trump, and Trump.
Web sentiment is the distinction between constructive and unfavorable sentiment. For instance, if 50% of posts on a subject are constructive and 75% are unfavorable, the web sentiment is -25%. A unfavorable web sentiment rating signifies that unfavorable sentiment outweighs constructive sentiment.
Outcomes refers back to the variety of particular person social media posts that point out a selected key phrase. It isn’t a measure of what number of occasions a key phrase was used (e.g., a publish that mentions “Harris” 5 occasions continues to be equal to 1 end result).
How key marketing campaign moments formed public sentiment
Sentiment has shifted all through the presidential race (though, within the social media sphere, neither candidate managed to interrupt into web constructive sentiment). Posts have gone viral, meme-able moments have occurred (many times), and the phrase “unprecedented” has turn into a key half of the present cultural discourse.
Under is a have a look at every candidate’s web sentiment all through 2024. The modifications in sentiment mirror every marketing campaign’s pivotal moments:
July 13: Tried assassination of Donald Trump
July 15-18: 2024 Republican Nationwide Conference
July 21: Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race
August 2: The announcement of Kamala Harris as the brand new Democratic nominee
August 6: The announcement of Tim Walz as Harris’ working mate
August 12: Trump joins Elon Musk for a digital chat hosted on X (previously Twitter)
August 19-22: 2024 Democratic Nationwide Conference
September 10: The primary presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC Information
October 1: The vice presidential debate between Walz and Vance hosted by CBS Information
October 5: Elon Musk joins Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, PA (the situation of the tried assassination of July 13, 2024)
Who was extra talked about, Harris or Trump?
Based on our evaluation, key phrases associated to Donald Trump generated almost 50% extra outcomes than these associated to Kamala Harris. To visualise, that’s virtually 3 posts mentioning Trump for each 2 posts mentioning Harris.
However not all outcomes are constructive. An evaluation of sentiment over the previous 3 months exhibits that almost all of social media posts referencing both candidate are unfavorable:
When utilizing social listening, politicians and types alike ought to be conscious that a person metric (e.g., the variety of outcomes) with out context (e.g., sentiment) can’t be used to precisely measure success.
Every marketing campaign is resonating extra with totally different demographics
Hootsuite’s social listening instrument can observe data at a really granular degree. You’ll be able to embody a breakdown by age, gender, and even location (all the way down to the state degree) in your evaluation.
For instance, are Gen Z voters extra excited a couple of sure candidate in Georgia vs. Nevada? Are female-identifying voters posting extra a couple of sure marketing campaign in Arizona vs. Michigan? What’s every candidate’s sentiment in key swing states?
Under, you’ll be able to see Hootsuite’s social listening evaluation of sentiment and mentions separated by age group over the previous 3 months:
Harris has extra constructive sentiment within the 65+ age group, whereas Trump has extra constructive sentiment amongst all different age teams.
When slicing sentiment data by gender, the candidates’ scores don’t differ wildly over the previous 3 months:
Whereas Trump has extra constructive sentiment amongst male-identifying social media customers, the 2 candidates are virtually even when it comes to web sentiment (which is unfavorable) amongst feminine social media customers.
American popular culture and the 2024 election
Whether or not presidential candidates prefer it or not, having the world’s eyes on you 24/7 offers the web loads of meme fodder.
Right here, we’re having a look at how popular culture has been interacting with the presently ongoing presidential campaigns — and vice versa.
Taylor Swift vs. Elon Musk
Each campaigns have loved quite a few endorsements from massive names in politics, arts, sports activities, enterprise, and extra.
Dick and Liz Cheney, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Obamas, and quite a few members of the Senate, have all publicly proven help for his or her chosen candidate.
The help expressed by popular culture figures has additionally created an inflow of dialog on social media. When Taylor Swift and Elon Musk endorsed Harris and Trump, respectively, the web went wild.
We thought it will be enjoyable to see which superstar’s endorsement generated an even bigger instant bump in on-line mentions:
The above chart exhibits outcomes that point out key phrases associated to each Trump and Musk, and Harris and Swift throughout the similar publish. We filtered for the day of every endorsement (July thirteenth for Musk, September tenth for Swift), to get a snapshot in time.
Our data exhibits that Elon Musk had an even bigger pull than Taylor Swift on social media. Musk and Trump generated 229.9k outcomes on July thirteenth, whereas Swift and Harris generated 176.5k outcomes.
Each endorsements adopted massive marketing campaign moments (the assassination try on Trump and the presidential debate), fueling social media momentum.
Kamala is BRAT
The Harris marketing campaign jumped on a viral development the second it launched by embracing the pop-culture affect of Charli XCX’s 2024 album BRAT. @KamalaHQ, the Harris Marketing campaign’s official account on X, shortly created a banner that mimicked BRAT’s styling:
Supply: Kamala HQ on X
Charli XCX then chimed in herself, stating that “Kamala IS brat.” From there, Kamala x BRAT remixes went viral throughout virtually each nook of social media.
Whereas there are over 60k outcomes on social media for posts mentioning each Kamala Harris and Brat, Charli XCX was (as soon as once more) eclipsed by Taylor Swift, who greater than doubled Charli’s numbers along with her endorsement of Harris.
Viral moments: Canines and coconuts
One of the vital viral moments of this yr’s presidential race, in keeping with social listening data, was Trump’s assertion in the course of the September tenth Presidential Debate:
“They’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats.”
The Trump quote shortly went viral on social media, inspiring remixes, TikTok audios, and memes.
Equally, the Harris Marketing campaign was seemingly kicked off by a clip from a speech the Vice President gave in 2023 on the White Home, wherein she states “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and which came before you.”
Listening data exhibits, apparently, that the clip’s viral surge started earlier than Harris turned the official nominee. It began gaining traction on social media following the presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and solely grew extra in style as her marketing campaign for President formally kicked off.
So, whose quote went probably the most viral over the previous 3 months? The data doesn’t lie:
“They’re eating the dogs” generated virtually 10 occasions extra outcomes than Harris’ coconut tree soundbite, though Harris’ quote is way older. Totals come to 839.7k outcomes for Trump’s soundbite and “only” 87.8k outcomes for Harris’.
What does this imply for you, and what can your model be taught from Harris vs. Trump?
As you’ll be able to see, social listening uncovers a wealth of data about on-line audiences. With the best instruments, you’ll be able to be taught what they’re saying, how they’re feeling, and the place they’re most lively. This, in fact, goes properly past the evaluation of political campaigns.
Whether or not you’re a small enterprise or an enterprise-level group, you need to use data factors just like those introduced on this weblog to form your social media technique. Buyer sentiment is already affecting the ROI of your social campaigns — however you’ve gotten to pay attention to it to make the best strategic choices.
Think about how you may goal your social adverts in case you knew that clients in North Carolina talked extra about your product than in New York? Or how you may uncover your key demographics, such because the age of your splendid buyer, and construct content material that spoke to their particular wants, preferences, and ache factors?
So, what are you ready for? With Hootsuite, you’ve gotten model mentions, trending matters, and sentiment information at your fingertips. Begin enhancing your social technique with the insights that matter at the moment.
Disclaimers
The aim of this weblog is to share social listening data. It’s a illustration of how folks speak about presidential candidates on-line — not a prediction of who will win on Election Day.
Not all social media customers speaking concerning the election are Americans who’re eligible to vote within the U.S. election.
Viewers demographics — all the way down to political choice — range from platform to platform.
Whereas main social networks have guardrails in opposition to misinformation, bots and faux information are a part of most trendy political campaigns.
Some social platforms restrict the distribution of political content material, which naturally impacts impressions and engagement.
