PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
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Best Picture
Frontrunners1. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)2. Oppenheimer (Universal)3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)4. Barbie (Warner Bros.)5. Poor Things (Searchlight)6. Past Lives (A24)7. Maestro (Netflix)8. The Holdovers (Focus)9. The Zone of Interest (A24)10. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
Major Threats11. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)12. May December (Netflix)13. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)14. Rustin (Netflix)15. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
Possibilities16. Air (Amazon/MGM)17. Origin (Neon)18. Ferrari (Neon)19. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)20. Priscilla (A24)21. The Iron Claw (A24)
Best Director
Frontrunners1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)2. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)3. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Major Threats6. Celine Song (Past Lives)7. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)8. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)9. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)10. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast11. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)12. Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
Possibilities13. Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)14. Ava DuVernay (Origin)15. Michael Mann (Ferrari)16. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)17. Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)18. George C. Wolfe (Rustin) — podcast20. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)
Best Actor
Frontrunners1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)3. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Major Threats6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)8. Franz Rogowski (Passages)9. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)10. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
Possibilities11. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast12. Adam Driver (Ferrari) — podcast13. Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)14. Michael Fassbender (The Killer)15. Teo Yoo (Past Lives)16. Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
Can’t Yet CallEugenio Derbez (Radical) — podcast
Best Actress
Frontrunners1. Annette Bening (Nyad)2. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast3. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)4. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast5. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
Major Threats6. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)7. Greta Lee (Past Lives)8. Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast9. Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)10. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Possibilities11. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast12. Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)13. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)14. Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)15. Trace Lysette (Monica)16. Thomasin McKenzie (Eileen) — podcast
Can’t Yet CallJessica Chastain (Memory) — podcastTeyana Taylor (A Thousand and One)
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)4. Charles Melton (May December)5. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
Major Threats6. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast7. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast8. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)9. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast10. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Possibilities11. Chris Messina (Air)12. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)13. Ben Whishaw (Passages)14. John Magaro (Past Lives)15. Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)
Can’t Yet CallPeter Sarsgaard (Memory)
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunners1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)3. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast4. Julianne Moore (May December)5. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Major Threats6. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)7. Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast8. America Ferrera (Barbie)9. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)10. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast11. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
Possibilities12. Viola Davis (Air)13. Issa Rae (American Fiction) — podcast14. Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)15. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast16. Tracee Ellis Ross (American Fiction) — podcast17. Anne Hathaway (Eileen)18. Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners1. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)2. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)5. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
Major Threats6. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)8. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)9. The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
Possibilities11. Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)12. Nyad (Julia Cox)13. Ferrari (Troy Kennedy Martin)14. Eileen (Luke Goebel and Ottessa Moshfegh)
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)2. Past Lives (Celine Song)3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)4. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)5. May December (Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik)
Major Threats6. Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)7. The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Catak and Johannes Duncker)8. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)9. Origin (Ava DuVernay)10. Air (Alex Convery)
Possibilities11. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)12. Fair Play (Chloe Domont)13. Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)14. Flora and Son (John Carney)15. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola)
Best International Feature
Frontrunners1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)2. The Taste of Things (France)3. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)4. Four Daughters (Tunisia)5. Society of the Snow (Spain)
Major Threats6. Perfect Days (Japan)7. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Can’t Yet CallBlaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)Shayda (Australia)Io Capitano (Italy)Godland (Iceland)The Promised Land (Denmark)Fallen Leaves (Finland)In the Shadow of Beirut (Ireland)About Dry Grasses (Turkey)Thunder (Switzerland)The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)Brothers (Czech Republic)Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World (Romania)Traces (Croatia)Voy! Voy! Voy! (Egypt)Sweet Dreams (Netherlands)
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners1. American Symphony (Netflix)2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)3. Kokomo City (Magnolia)4. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)5. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
Rest of the Shortlist6. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)7. The Deepest Breath (Netflix)8. The Eternal Memory (MTV)9. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)10. The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)11. The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)12. The Mission (Nat Geo)13. Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)14. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)15. Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
Possibilities16. Every Body (Focus)17. Occupied City (A24)18. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)19. King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)20. The League (Magnolia)21. Joan Baez: I Am a Noise (Magnolia)
Can’t Yet Call32 Sounds (Abramorama)Black Ice (Lionsgate)A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (HBO)Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)In the Rearview (Film Movement)In the Shadow of Beirut (Cyprus Avenue)Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)The Mother of All Lies (still seeking U.S. distribution)Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)Periodical (MSNBC)Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (Greenwich)A Still Small Voice (Abramorama)Uncharitable (Abramorama)What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)While We Watched (PBS)Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)
Best Animated Feature
Frontrunners1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)3. Nimona (Netflix)4. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)5. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
Major Threats6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)7. Leo (Netflix)8. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)9. Wish (Disney)10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
Can’t Yet CallAmazing Maurice (Viva)Deep Sea (Viva)Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)Migration (Illumination)Robot Dreams (Neon)Stopmotion (IFC)Suzume (Toho)Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Best Cinematography
Frontrunners1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)3. The Zone of Interest (Łukasz Żal)4. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)5. Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
Major Threats6. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)7. The Color Purple (Dan Laustsen)8. Society of the Snow (Pedro Luque)9. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)10. Saltburn (Linus Sandgren)11. Napoleon (Dariusz Wolski)12. Past Lives (Shabier Kirchner)
Possibilities13. May December (Christopher Blauvelt)14. The Taste of Things (Jonathan Ricquebourg)15. The Holdovers (Eigil Byrid)16. All of Us Strangers (Jamie D. Ramsay)17. Air (Robert Richardson)18. El Conde (Ed Lachman)19. Origin (Matthew J. Floyd)20. The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)
Best Costume Design
Frontrunners1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)4. The Color Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)5. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Major Threats6. Priscilla (Stacey Battat)7. Maestro (Mark Bridges)8. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)9. Wonka (Lindy Hemming)10. Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret (Ann Roth)11. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
Possibilities12. Ferrari (Massimo Cantini Parrini)13. Asteroid City (Milena Canonero)14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale)15. Rustin (Toni-Leslie James)16. Cassandro (María Estela Fernández)17. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Trish Summerville)
Best Fim Editing
Frontrunners1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)3. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)4. Barbie (Nick Houy)5. American Fiction (Hilda Rasula)
Major Threats6. Past Lives (Keith Fraase)7. Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)8. Maestro (Michelle Tesoro)9. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts)10. Air (William Goldenberg)11. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Michael Andrews)
Possibilities12. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One (Eddie Hamilton)13. The Color Purple (Jon Poll)14. The Holdovers (Kevin Trent)15. The Killer (Kirk Baxter)16. May December (Affonso Gonçalves)17. Origin (Spencer Averick)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Frontrunners1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)3. Barbie (Ivana Primorac)4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)5. Priscilla (Cliona Furey & Jo-Ann MacNeil)
Rest of Shortlist6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ()7. Nyad (Ana María Andrickson, Jandeira Avirón, Felicity Bowring, Corey Castellano, Vanessa Colombo, Daniel Curet, Julie Hewett, Ann-Maree Hurley, Maha Lessner)8. Rustin (Melissa Forney & Beverly Jo Pryor)9. The Color Purple (Lawrence Davis & Carol Rasheed)10. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
Possibilities11. Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas)12. Ferrari (Marcelle Genovese, Marco Pompei, Aldo Signoretti & Scott Wheeler)13. The Little Mermaid (Camille Friend & Peter Smith King)14. The Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)15. The Iron Claw (Elle Favorule & Natalie Shea Rose)16. Wonka (David Darby, John Nolan & Ivana Primorac)17. Air (Luisa Abel & Carla Joi Farmer)18. The Creator (Francesca van der Feyst)19. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)
Best Original Score
Frontrunners1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)2. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)4. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)5. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino)
Rest of Shortlist6. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)7. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)8. Elemental (Thomas Newman)9. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)11. The Killer (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)12. Origin (Kris Bowers)13. The Boys in the Boat (Alexandre Desplat)14. Nyad (Alexandre Desplat)15. Past Lives (Christopher Bear & Daniel Rossen)
Possibilities16. Saltburn (Anthony Willis)17. Wish (David Metzger)18. Ferrari (Daniel Pemberton)19. Rustin (Branford Marsalis)20. The Pigeon Tunnel (Philip Glass & Paul Leonard-Morgan) — podcast (Glass)21. A Haunting in Venice (Hildur Guðnadóttir)22. The Creator (Hans Zimmer) — podcast23. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Hans Zimmer) — podcast24. Napoleon (Martin Phipps)25. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)26. The Marvels (Laura Karpman)27. All of Us Strangers (Emilie Levienaise-Farrouch)
Best Original Song
Frontrunners1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcast2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)3. “This Wish” (Wish), Julia Michaels & Benjamin Rice4. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast
Rest of Shortlist6. “For the First Time” (The Little Mermaid), Alan Menken & Lin-Manuel Miranda — podcast (Miranda)“Road to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz7. “Keep It Movin’” (The Color Purple), Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & Morten Ristorp8. “Dance the Night” (Barbie), Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcasts (Lipa & Ronson)9. “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)10. “High Life” (Flora and Son), John Carney & Gary Clark11. “Better Place” (Trolls Band Together), Amy Allen, Karl Schuster & Justin Timberlake — podcast (Timberlake)12. “Camp Isn’t Home” (Theater Camp), Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, Nick Lieberman, Ben Platt & Mark Sonnenblick — podcast (Platt)13. “Am I Dreaming” (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & Leland Wayne14. “Steal the Show” (Elemental), Ari Staprans “Lauv” Leff, Michael Matosic & Thomas Newman15. “I Am” (Origin), Te Kanapu Anasta, Michael Fatkin, Vince Harder & Stan Walker
Possibilities16. “A World of Your Own” (Wonka), Simon Farnabay, Neil Hannon & Paul King17. “Superpower (I)” (The Color Purple), Terius Gesteelde-Diamant18. “Out-Alpha the Alpha” (Dicks: The Musical), Megan Thee Stallion19. “The Scuttlebutt” (The Little Mermaid), Alan Menken & Lin-Manuel Miranda — podcast (Miranda)20. “I Am” (Origin), Te Kanapu Anasta, Michael Fatkin, Vince Harder & Stan Walker21. “Everything Is Gonna Be Alright” (Bobi Wine: The People’s President), Bobi Wine22. “Peaches” (The Super Mario Bros. Move), Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond & John Spiker23. “Wounded Heart” (Silver Dollar Road), Ondara24. “Live That Way Forever” (The Iron Claw), Richard Reed & Laurel “Little Scream” Sprengelmeyer25. “All Love Is Love” (Dicks: The Musical), Aaron Jackson & Josh Sharp26. “Quiet Eyes” (Past Lives), Zach Dawes & Sharon Von Etten27. “Gonna Be You” (80 for Brady), Diane Warren — podcast
Best Production Design
Frontrunners1. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)2. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fish & Adam Willis)4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)5. Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)
Major Threats6. Wonka (Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales)7. The Color Purple (Paul D. Austerberry & Larry Dias)8. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)9. Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & Sophie Phillips)10. Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)11. The Zone of Interest (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)12. Asteroid City (Kris Moran & Adam Stockhausen)
Possibilites13. The Taste of Things (Toma Baqueni)14. Anatomy of a Fall (Cécile Deleu & Emmanuelle Duplay)15. Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & Tamara Deverell)16. Air (François Audouy & Jan Pascale)17. May December (Sam Lisenco & Jess Royal)18. Origin (Ina Mayhew & Jacqueline Jacobson Scarfo)19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Patrick O’Keefe)
Best Sound
Frontrunners1. Oppenheimer (Richard King, Michael W. Mitchell, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)3. The Color Purple (Richard Bullock, Paul Massey, Steve Morrow, Julian Slater & Renee Tondelli)4. Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)5. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)
Rest of Shortlist6. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)7. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Juan Peralta, Geoffrey G. Rubay & Michael Semanick)9. Poor Things (Johnnie Burn & Tamás Dévényi)10. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Erik Aadahl, Ron Bartlett, Anna Behlmer, Simon Pidrette & Ethan Van Der Ryn)
Possibilities11. Napoleon (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & Oliver Tarney)12. Wonka (Niv Adiri, Ben Barker, John Casali, Glenn Freemantle & Paul Massey)13. The Creator (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & Dean Zupancic)14. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (David Acord, Christopher Boyes, Cheryl Nardi, Lee Orloff & Gary A. Rizzo)15. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & Chris Munro)16. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Juan Peralta, Gary Rydstrom, Donald Sylvester & Stuart Wilson)17. Wish (David E. Fluhr & Shannon Mills)18. 32 Sounds (Mark A. Mangini)19. The Deepest Breath (Will Chapman, Greg Gettens & Chad Orororo)
Best Visual Effects
Frontrunners1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 32. The Creator3. Rebel Moon: Part One — A Child of Fire4. Society of the Snow5. Poor Things
Rest of Shortlist6. Transformers: Rise of the Beats7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny9. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One10. Wonka
Possibilities11. The Marvels12. Napoleon13. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom14. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania15. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves16. Barbie17. Killers of the Flower Moon18. Godzilla: Minus One19. The Boys in the Boat20. Nyad
