2023 Emmys Lead Actor Drama Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Emmy Predictions:Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Weekly Commentary (Updated: Aug 17, 2023): As the central figure on which the entire premise rests, Scottish veteran Brian Cox pushes the wealthy Roy patriarch to the actor’s limit. The result is an all-timer for HBO, coming off its 50th anniversary. He may have only appeared briefly in five of the ten episodes. Still, Anthony Hopkins had only 21 minutes of screentime when he won the Oscar for playing Hannibal Lecter in “The Silence of the Lambs.” It’s quality, not quantity.

An integral piece of one of HBO’s most engrossing cast ensembles, Kieran Culkin crafts a multi-dimensional Roman Roy, full of moral complexity and rich development thanks to creator Jesse Armstrong’s brilliant writing. With a masterful delivery, Culkin provided a broad spectrum of emotions (i.e., talking to his dying Dad or delivering the eulogy) that will remain engraved in television history. 

Kendall Roy was so close to getting WayStar. A dedicated actor, Jeremy Strong, an Emmy winner for the second season, fully immerses himself in the role of the eldest Roy son (according to Kendall, even though his brother Connor is very much alive) and his bloodthirst for the throne. His final breakdown in the boardroom will make him a contender to walk away with one more statuette if he doesn’t split with all three of his co-stars.  

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

Vote for Pedro? That’s what it feels like the narrative has been with the Latino actor scoring three noms. With “The Last of Us,” an adaptation of the popular videogame series, Pascal is Joel Miller, a hardened survivor of a global pandemic. His work is breathtaking in a genre show that allows Pascal to internalize his emotions and rely on his physical mannerisms to create a three-dimensional character. 

Bob Odenkirk’s gift to us all is the morally ambiguous and complex Jimmy McGill/Saul Goodman. In the critically acclaimed AMC prequel series, Odenkirk brings authenticity to Jimmy’s transformation from a struggling and well-meaning lawyer to the morally flexible, fast-talking criminal lawyer Saul Goodman. It’s the TV Academy’s last chance to bestow him with the Emmy, which could re-create an iconic moment similar to Jon Hamm’s final season win for “Mad Men.” 

Jeff Bridges taking on the role of Dan Chase, a retired intelligence officer who finds himself on the run and forced to confront his past, is yet another excellent turn from our favorite “dude.” His second career nom after the miniseries “A Dog Year” in 2010, Bridges is the only chance to recognize the FX drama, which underperformed with nominations.

The rankings for the category are below.

The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST. The 75th Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Monday, January 15, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. The Creative Arts ceremony will occur on Saturday, January 6, and Sunday, January 7. An edited version will air on FXX on Saturday, January 13, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET. All events will take place at the Peacock Theater at LA Live.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

And the Nominees Are:

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**

** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Lee Jung-jae as Seong Gi-hun, “Squid Game” (Netflix) — Season 1

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.